Publicadas ayer…

www.bde.es/f/webbde/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/ComunicadosBCE/ResenasReunione sPoliticaMonetaria/Arc/Fic/July2016Account.pdf

¿Se quedan sólo con este párrafo?

Nevertheless, there was wide agreement that downside risks to the economic outlook for the euro area had increased, mainly owing to the outcome of the UK referendum. In this respect, available estimates of the impact on euro area growth over the coming years were noted, but it was also recognised that such estimates were subject to a great deal of uncertainty and that the situation called for caution in assessing future developments. At the same time, it was perceived that the reaction of financial markets in the euro area had been more contained than could have been expected, both in the initial responses and in the partial reversals that took place afterwards

Sin embargo, el BCE pide más información antes de tomar nuevas potenciales medidas. Y considera que las aprobadas en marzo pasado, incluyendo nueva facilidad de crédito a plazo a la banca, ampliar la compra de papel en el mercado (deuda corporativa) y un nuevo recorte en el tipo depósito, están funcionando bien. Aunque en el segundo punto también menciona la percepción de escasez de papel en algunos segmentos del mercado. Pero, lo más relevante en mi opinión de las Actas de ayer fue la reiterada mención al sector bancario. Especialmente el fuerte castigo que recibe en bolsa…

For euro area banks, the UK leave vote came at a time when earnings expectations were already low. Since the previous monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council euro area bank equities had underperformed the overall stock market index by a wide margin. At the same time, the stock market index for NFCs had remained broadly unchanged compared with early June. Euro area corporate bond yields had been less affected by the referendum outcome than equity prices. While bank bonds had performed significantly better than bank equities, the resumption of the downward trend in bond yields recorded since January 2016 had been less pronounced for financial corporations than for NFCs. The overall cost of external financing for NFCs had declined slightly further since the Governing Council’s meeting on 1-2 June. At the same time, access to market-based funding had improved further overall, while bank lending remained important for the external financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. Bank lending rates to NFCs and households had declined further in May 2016, while retail deposit rates had stabilised at very low levels across euro area countries

Y esto tras observar que se está produciendo una mejora clara en la financiación bancaria al sector privado. Pero el ECB muestra su preocupación por la correlación existente entre la evolución de los precios de los bancos en bolsa y la propia evolución de sus préstamos…

Turning to money and credit, annual growth in M3 had remained robust at 4.9% in May 2016, after 4.6% in April, having hovered around 5% since mid-2015. The annual growth rate of M1 

also remained solid, despite a further decline in May to 9.1%, down from 9.7% in April. The gradual recovery in bank lending to the euro area private sector continued to proceed at a modest pace. The annual growth rate of loans to NFCs (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) had recovered further in May to 1.4%, up from 1.2% in April, while the annual growth rate of loans to households stood at 1.6% in May, thus remaining broadly stable since February 2016. According to the July 2016 bank lending survey for the euro area, the ongoing recovery in loan growth was supported by a further improvement in loan supply conditions for enterprises and households, as well as a continued increase in demand for all loan categories in the second quarter of 2016. Credit standards applied to the approval of loans to enterprises had eased further in the second quarter, notably driven by enhanced competition, while risk perception as a hampering factor, relevant during the crisis, had almost disappeared. The further easing of credit terms and conditions for loans to enterprises during the second quarter of 2016 reflected a narrowing of margins on average loans, whereas margins on riskier loans remained broadly unchanged. Net demand for loans to enterprises continued to increase. Looking at bank equity and credit supply, a close correlation between lagged developments in bank stock prices and loans to NFCs could be Page 6 observed. However, it was not clear to what extent this correlation reflected leading indicator properties of stock markets for GDP, which was a fundamental driver of lending.
Fourth, developments in the bank lending channel warranted close monitoring. The latest bank lending survey confirmed that loan dynamics continued to improve, reflecting both improving loan supply conditions and increased loan demand. However, euro area banks were confronted with a number of challenges hampering the ability to generate capital, with potential adverse effects on the supply of credit.

Al final, más allá de la solvencia, es una cuestión de beneficios. O de la perspectiva de beneficios. Recuerden que las bolsas, como cualquier otro mercado financiero, vive de anticipar el futuro. Y en este caso en el futuro de los beneficios de la banca. En este punto influye más que la política monetaria expansiva los tipos de interés negativos de depósito. Deterioro en las perspectivas de resultados y ajuste pendiente en el balance de las entidades, bajo una estricta regulación y supervisión…

In the light of the prevailing uncertainties, including with respect to the post-UK referendum environment for banks and to the upcoming publication of the results of the European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test, it was seen as essential to safeguard the smooth transmission of monetary policy through the banking system, which played a crucial role for the real economy in the euro area and was key to supporting the ongoing economic recovery. In this context, it was noted that the equity prices of euro area banks had fallen following the UK referendum. While this could, in part, be associated with the likely direct impact of the outcome of the referendum, it also reflected the continued underlying weakness in bank profitability, related, inter alia, to a more prolonged period of only moderate growth and low interest rates, as well as legacy issues stemming mainly from still high levels of non-performing exposures in some parts of the euro area banking system, which continued to weigh on banks’ balance sheets. It was argued that such vulnerabilities appeared to resurface with new shocks that posed a risk to the recovery of the euro area economy. Reference was made to the apparent link between bank stock price valuations and bank lending volumes, as presented by Mr Praet in his introduction. While equity price volatility was not necessarily a concern, it warranted attention in case it weakened the functioning of the bank lending channel and the effective transmission of monetary policy to the real economy in the euro area. It was argued that the cost of equity was a critical component of the cost of lending for banks, whereby a high cost of capital could lower the net return on bank lending and thereby lead to more conservative lending behaviour by banks. At the same time, the euro area banking system was seen to be in much better shape than at the time of the comprehensive assessment of bank balance sheets undertaken in 2014. On the basis of a more robust regulatory and supervisory environment, capital positions had been strengthened, provisioning against nonperforming exposures had increased and banks’ liquidity buffers were ample. Moreover, bank intermediation was supported by the ECB’s monetary policy measures, contributing to better funding conditions, increased lending and the economic recovery more broadly.