"Participants agreed that, with the unemployment rate approaching 6½ percent, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to change its forward guidance in order to provide information about its decisions regarding the federal funds rate after that threshold was crossed." "A few participants raised the possibility that it might be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate relatively soon. One participant cited evidence that the equilibrium real interest rate had moved higher, and a couple of them noted that some standard policy rules tended to suggest that the federal funds rate should be raised above its effective lower bound before the middle of this year." "A couple of participants observed that continued low readings on inflation and considerable slack in the labor market raised questions about the desirability of reducing the pace of purchases; these participants judged, however, that a pause in the reduction of purchases was not justified at this stage, especially in light of the strength of the economy in the second half of 2013."

En el fondo, optimismo económico. Valoración del margen monetario, sustituyendo el forward guidance por un hipotético qualitive guidance. Esta mayor flexibilidad implícita, en el fondo, nos lleva a una gestión de la política monetaria "normal". Si consideramos normalidad la situación previa a la Crisis.

¿Cómo reaccionaron los mercados? Las bolsas USA se dejaron ayer medio punto. Y las caídas se mantienen ahora en futuros, algo mayores. Lo llamativo es el USD, que se mantiene depreciado contra el EUR (1.3758 USD). La rentabilidad del treasury al alza hasta 2.71 %.

La cuestión de fondo es evidente: ¿hasta qué punto los últimos datos económicos negativos pueden ser coherentes con este escenario de optimismo económico que se respira en el FOMC?.