Sigo pensando que la ambigüedad es positiva para el mercado. Y ayer tuvimos un nuevo ejemplo en el caso de las Actas del FOMC de marzo. Por un lado, la discusión interna que trata de separar lo que son las proyecciones sobre tipos de interés oficiales (al alza) del Comunicado (sesgo) del FOMC. Además, la Fed se esfuerza en rectificar que el proceso de normalización monetaria no significa que haya un cambio hacia un sesgo alcista.

Participants agreed that, with the unemployment rate approaching 6½ percent, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to change its forward guidance in order to provide information about its decisions regarding the federal funds rate after that threshold was crossed. A range of views was expressed about the form that such forward guidance might take. Some participants favored quantitative guidance along the lines of the existing thresholds, while others preferred a qualitative approach that would provide additional information regarding the factors that would guide the Committee's policy decisions. Several participants suggested that risks to financial stability should appear more explicitly in the list of factors that would guide decisions about the federal funds rate once the unemployment rate threshold is crossed, and several participants argued that the forward guidance should give greater emphasis to the Committee's willingness to keep rates low if inflation were to remain persistently below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Additional proposals included relying to a greater extent on the Summary of Economic Projections as a communications device and including in the guidance an indication of the Committee's willingness to adjust policy to lean against undesired changes in financial conditions.

La lectura del mercado es sin duda positiva....¿cómo podría serlo de otra forma? Al final, el Taper sigue su curso pero las dudas dentro de la Fed sobre el inicio de las subidas de tipos, como poco, apuntan a que será limitada y moderada en el tiempo. El resto, es el exceso de liquidez.

Pero, al final, sigue siendo una decisión futura de política monetaria de tipo cualitativo. Y los potenciales excesos en los mercados serán parte de las decisiones en el futuro.