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¿Tienen preguntas? Seguro que aquí encuentran las respuestas....

WHEN IS THE VOTE?
The referendum takes place this Thursday, September 18th. The polling booths will be open from 7am to 10pm UK time on the day of the vote.

WHAT QUESTION IS BEING ASKED?
The question as phrased on the ballot paper is: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?", with the option of just a Yes or No response. A less widely known fact is that the original ballot paper put forward to Westminster by SNP leader Alex Salmond had a third option, which was simply a No, but with maximum devolution as a condition of keeping the union intact. David Cameron rejected that third option over fears that it would act as a magnet for low conviction votes, resulting in a cheap giveaway of power to Scotland without the SNP needing to risk outright defeat.

WHEN ARE THE RESULTS RELEASED?
The results will likely be released in the early hours of Friday morning, and the winning party should be clear by the time London opens for trading on Friday.

HOW WILL THE WINNER BE DETERMINED?
Under the terms of the Edinburgh agreement, signed by David Cameron and Alex Salmond in October 2012, the winner of the vote will be determined on the basis of a simple majority, with 50% plus 1 vote theoretically providing a strong enough platform to claim victory. Both sides have claimed that they will treat Thursday's results as binding, but given how much is at stake, and given how passionate both sides of the debate are, I'm not sure you can rule out the possibility of a protest and demand for a re-count in the event of a close outcome.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE VOTE?
In the event of a No vote, UK politics should essentially revert to a business as usual situation, but with the Scottish government keep to capitalise on the promises of further devolution that have been offered to it by Westminster in a bid to keep the union intact.

WHO CAN VOTE IN THE REFERENDUM?
You are entitled to vote in the referendum if you are (i) at least 16 years old on September 18th 2014, (ii) registered to vote in Scotland, and are (a) a British citizen living in Scotland, (b) a European Union citizen living in Scotland, or (c) a qualifying Commonwealth citizen living in Scotland. However, you cannot vote if you are a Scottish national who isn't currently resident in Scotland and lives elsewhere - a fact that has prompted quiet controversy amongst that particular demographic. As an example, there are thought to be 400,000 people living in Scotland who were born in other parts of the UK who are entitled to vote this Thursday, but twice as many people born in Scotland but living in England, Wales, or Northern Ireland who cannot participate.

WHAT SORT OF TURNOUT IS EXPECTED?
The BBC estimates that 97% of the people eligible to vote in the referendum have registered on the Scottish electoral roll. The implied probability of a turnout in excess of 75% on the day of the vote is somewhere in the region of 89% according to the betting exchanges.  Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout has a 9 handle on it.

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?
Polls have become less important in terms of market impact in recent days given their inherent margin for error. Over the last weekend alone, you can pretty much find a poll claiming to show every permutation in the swing all the way from a 55/45 split in favour of the No camp, to a 55/45 split in favour of Yes. After a mini panic at the start of last week, the implied odds on the betting exchanges have firmed considerably in favour of the No vote, with an implied probability of 77/23 in favour of union prevailing, based on almost £10m worth of bets matched on Betfair.

IS THERE ANY HISTORICAL PRECEDENT?
Not within the context of the UK, but note that the people of Quebec have held a series of referendum on its independence from Canada over the last 35 years, and this can arguably be considered as a decent precedent for what we are experiencing in Scotland.

WHAT HAPPENED?
The final polls in the most recent Quebec independence debate showed a 4-6 point lead for the separatists as we approached the day of the vote. Despite looking like a nailed on success, Quebec's independence movement ultimately lost 49.42% to 50.58% when the votes were counted, as sober second thoughts regarding the reality of forming a new country set in when people were faced with making their final decision.

WHY THE BIG SWING?
Undecided means indecisive, and indecisive equals scared. People who hadn't made up their minds in Quebec tended to gravitate towards the status quo. Based on the final polls, only 12-20% of undecided voters in Quebec choose separation. If you apply that methodology to the undecided voters in the Scottish independence debate then you end up with a comfortable implied winning margin for the No vote.

WHAT ARE THE OTHER HIDDEN FACTORS THAT WE NEED TO CONSIDER?
There is a reasonable belief that the youth vote (i.e. the Facebook generation) has been structurally under represented in traditional polls on the basis that opinion polls tend to be conducted via telephone and target the head of households. That older demographic tends to poll with a slight bias towards union (theory being that old = wealthy = more at risk from a change to the status quo).  On the flip side, most people aged 16-29 with little or no experience engaging in politics haven't got as much to risk, fear change less, and hence are believed to be more open to the notion of independence. I picked up an interesting internet poll over the weekend that underlined this point. Across a group of 31,571 young Scottish Facebook users (including my lonely looking No vote), an overwhelming 76% of respondents came out in favour of independence. Bear in mind that this poll is 30x larger than the traditional opinion polls we see published in newspapers. A sign of complacency?

WHAT ARE THE RISKS THAT WE NEED TO CONSIDER AFTER THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM?
Parts of David Cameron's government fear that he is making a huge mistake in promising new powers to Scotland if they back away from independence. That move is believed to have scope to turn "threatening independence" into a political platform for Scottish politicians. For a generation, Quebec used the threat of separation as a way to wrangle more and more power from the rest of Canada. The initial Quebec referendum wasn't the first one either. In 1980, Quebec held its first independence referendum and lost by a 60/40 margin, but that wasn't the end of the story. Scottish separatist politicians will likely be empowered by the upswing in support that their campaign has experienced in recent weeks. By buckling to the SNP's demands, Cameron has guaranteed that the question of Scottish independence won't be going away any time soon even if the independence movement loses.


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